Macroeconomic Quarterly Update (Summer 2025)

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Overview:

At the July 30th FOMC meeting, the Committee voted 9–2 to keep the federal funds rate at 4.25 %–4.50 %, maintaining a “wait-and-see” stance.

CCA tracks the following 14 economic datapoints, which are some of the common indicators used to monitor the status of the macro economy. A few key takeaways that CCA is monitoring are:

    • U.S. Real GDP rose 3.0 % (annualized) in Q2 2025, a sharp turnaround from the –0.5 % contraction in Q1 2025.
    • The PCE Price Index increased 2.6 % YoY in June 2025, with Core PCE (excluding food and energy) up 2.8% YoY.
    • The University of Michigan’s preliminary July index climbed to 61.7, its highest since February, though still down 7.1% from a year ago.
    • U.S. employers added 73,000 nonfarm payrolls in July, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 %, signaling a moderation in hiring. Additionally, May and June were revised much lower by a combined 258,000 jobs.
    • Housing starts in June reached 1.32 million SAAR, up 5.2% MoM, though single-family starts fell to 883,000.

CCA Macroeconomic Summer 2025

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